Business and financial conditions have deteriorated fast at CSM Bakery which – according to Moody’s – “produces and distributes bakery ingredients and products for artisan and industrial bakeries, and for in-store and out-of-home markets, mainly in Europe and North America“. Both Moody’s and S&P have downgraded the company’s debt to SD, or “selective default“. Right now, the asset-based lenders to the company have entered into a forbearance agreement, but only till June 11. Moreover, the 2020 and 2021 term loans have been downgraded to CC and C respectively. This does not look good and a default or restructuring seems likely.

This is bad news for the 4 BDCs involved with $17.3mn invested at cost in those term loans, one which is senior secured and the second subordinated/second lien, according to Advantage Data’s records. The BDCs involved (in descending order of debt held) are non-traded FS Investment II; Monroe Capital (MRCC); Portman Ridge (PTMN) and FS-KKR Capital (FSK). PTMN is in both the loans and MRCC in just the subordinated.

At the end of 2019, this debt was performing and valued close to par. As of March 2020, the BDCs valuations had been discounted by as much as (18%) and the subordinated by (22%). (As always, BDC valuations vary). The current market value of these syndicated loans – using AD’s module – are not much worse right now despite the downgrades. Whether that will continue, especially for the more junior debt, if a default/restructuring occures remains to be seen. As is often the case, we are more pessimistic.

The BDC Credit Reporter had downgraded the company to CCR 3 from CCR 2 after the IQ 2020 results but now reduces the rating to CCR 4, as a loss seems very likely. Furthermore, we are adding the company to our Weakest Links list given the proximity of a non accrual and/or bankruptcy, even though interest has been paid currently till now. There’s ($1.2mn) of investment income at risk of interruption very soon and eventual losses that could exceed ($6.5mn) in our ungenerous estimation, or 38% of cost.

CSM is another example of that second wave of BDC portfolio companies affected by the impact of Covid-19. (The first wave were the companies already badly unperforming but still accruing income before the virus struck. many of those companies have since defaulted/filed Chapter 11 or undertaken major out of court restructurings or are close to doing so). Judging by its valuation the company was performing adequately before the crisis but has deteriorated fast. (Moody’s valued the first lien debt Caa1 in mid-2019). In less than 6 months CSM has gone from adequate performance to the edge of bankruptcy.

(Word to the wise, there will most likely also be a third wave of underperforming companies if the economy does not recover – even if not directly in the worst affected industries – as the weight of servicing debt and the difficulty of raising new capital increases. However, that’s an issue for another time).

We expect to be reporting back on CSM very shortly, given the short leash the lenders are giving the company.