BDC Dividend Outlook Table

Click here for the BDC Reporter's dividend projections

Because BDCs are required to distribute 90%-98% of their taxable income every year, dividends are a central activity and of great interest to the sector's legion of investors. The BDC Reporter already tracks the annual dividend history of every BDC, going back to 2021. We're now going one step further and projecting each BDC's total payout for 2026 in yet another Subscriber Tool. This is not an easy task because BDC managers are notoriously secretive about their distribution intentions. As a result, consider the projections presented herein our educated guess based on historic experience, likely earnings, the amount of spillover income available, and a host of other variables. Whenever the facts change, we will rush to update the table.

How It Works

There are just 8 columns. We begin with each BDC by ticker - 45 currently.

This is followed by the total dividend paid out in 2025, typically sourced from the BDC's own website. This is a useful base to start from.

Then we show the most recent earnings projection for 2026, based on the analyst consensus.

Note that we have no choice but to show fiscal-year projections, which might not exactly align with the January-December calendar we use for the dividend numbers, but give an idea of EPS expectations.

Given that BDC earnings and distributions are intertwined, although not identical, this column shows whether a BDC is "covering" its payout with its earnings. Many investors believe a dividend exceeding earnings is a precursor to an upcoming cost, but that's not always the case.

Then, across two columns, we show the dividends actually paid or announced for this year and for the relevant periods involved, also drawn from the BDC's own disclosures.

Next, and most important of all, we show the BDC Reporter's own full-year dividend projection for every BDC, which is the central purpose of this tool.

You'll notice at the bottom of the column that we calculate how much the total BDC dividends are expected to change relative to the 2025 actual performance.

That leaves two final columns to help make this projection more useful.

We begin by showing the latest stock price, drawn from a Google Finance feed, and follow with a calculation that shows the corresponding dividend yield.

To make this last column even more useful, we use a color code for the yield,

Any BDC yielding 15.0% or higher is colored lime green. These are the very highest yields and, most likely, not sustainable. We use light green for yields still very high, from 12.5% to 14.999%; orange for yields between 10.0% and 12.4999%; light red for yields between 7.5% and 9.999%; and, finally, bright red for anything below 7.5%.

Best Wishes

We hope this table, which we use regularly ourselves when making our own investment decisions, will prove helpful.

Remember, though, these are projections and should not be unduly relied upon.