Long-Term Trends In the Golub Capital-Altman Middle Market Index
The Golub Capital-Altman Index of middle market company sales and EBITDA performance has just been published. We review the latest results and look at the longer-term historical trends, and shiver a little at what we find.
July 15, 2025
The Golub Capital Altman Index (GCAI) is an economic indicator that tracks the median year-over-year revenue and earnings (EBITDA) growth of approximately 110 to 150 private U.S. middle-market companies backed by private equity. Co-created by direct lender Golub Capital and NYU Stern Professor Dr. Edward I. Altman (creator of the Z-score model), the index analyzes actual, non-public financial data collected during the first two months of each calendar quarter. Because these results are reported shortly before the start of public company earnings season, the GCAI functions as a leading indicator; its performance has historically shown a strong correlation with the subsequent quarterly earnings of major public indices like the S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, and the Russell 2000, as well as broader U.S. GDP trends
Latest But Not Greatest
The latest results were published on July 14, 2026 and were as follows:
| Period | Revenue YoY | EBITDA YoY |
| Q2 2026 | 3.1% | 3.7% |
| Q1 2026 | 1.4% | -0.1% |
Both the revenue and the EBITDA of the component companies perked up in the second quarter of 2026 after a weak first quarter of 2026.
Still, with inflation running at 3.5% over this period, very little "real" growth is evident.
Here is what the principals said about the latest results:
Lawrence E. Golub (Co-CEO, Golub Capital): Golub described the early read on Q2 results as "encouraging," pointing out that despite headwinds from higher oil prices and uncertainty related to the Iran conflict, these middle-market companies delivered steady growth. He highlighted the "continued strength of our enterprise software companies," noting that mission-critical software providers with strong market share and durable customer relationships are performing very well. Overall, he viewed the results as consistent with an economy demonstrating resilience.
Dr. Edward I. Altman (Credit Expert & Index Co-Creator): Altman noted that earnings growth (3.7%) actually kept pace with revenue growth (3.1%). He interpreted this as evidence that companies in the sample generally maintained their profit margins against inflationary pressures in April and May. He also expressed positive surprise regarding the Consumer sector; despite lingering risks from energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty, those factors hadn't yet materially degraded operating performance in that space.
Looking Back
We thought it would be interesting, with the help of Gemini, to look back over the last 5 years to see how these two critical metrics of middle-market companies have changed.
Moreover, given that inflation has fluctuated considerably in recent years, we asked the AI to adjust for this factor
| Period | YoY Inflation (CPI) | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Nominal EBITDA | Real EBITDA |
| Q2 2026 | 4.0% | 3.1% | -0.9% | 3.7% | -0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | 2.5% | 1.4% | -1.1% | -0.1% | -2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | 2.8% | 2.4% | -0.4% | 3.1% | 0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | 2.9% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 3.3% | 0.4% |
| Q2 2025 | 3.0% | 2.3% | -0.7% | 5.4% | 2.3% |
| Q1 2025 | 3.1% | 3.0% | -0.1% | 1.7% | -1.4% |
| Q2 2024 | 3.3% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 11.0% | 7.5% |
| Q1 2024 | 3.1% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 11.0% | 7.7% |
| Q4 2023 | 3.2% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 16.3% | 12.7% |
| Q3 2023 | 3.7% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 13.3% | 9.3% |
| Q1 2022 | 7.9% | 18.2% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 1.4% |
Gemini's Comments On The Results
The 2022 Illusion: In Q1 2022, middle-market companies appeared to be in a hyper-growth phase with 18.2% revenue increases. In reality, raging 7.9% inflation ate their lunch. Real EBITDA growth was just 1.4%, proving that top-line inflation was masking a brutal margin squeeze.
The Golden Window (Late 2023): Q4 2023 was the healthiest period for the middle market in the last 5 years. Nominal revenue growth slowed to 7.0%, but because inflation cooled to 3.2%, real EBITDA growth exploded to 12.7%. Companies successfully passed on accumulated historical costs while operational efficiencies finally kicked in.
The Current 2026 Reality: The Q2 2026 nominal rebound (3.1% revenue, 3.7% EBITDA) looks decent on paper compared to the Q1 stall. However, because the recent geopolitical energy shock pushed annual headline inflation back up to 4.0% during April and May, real middle-market growth is actually slightly negative right now (-0.9% real revenue, -0.3% real EBITDA). Companies are fighting hard to hold the line on margins, but volume expansion has temporarily flatlined.
OUR VIEW
We will say right off the bat that an index of 110-150 companies does not necessarily reflect the realities in the overall market, or even in the middle market. This is just one piece in a very large puzzle and the results have to be treated circumspectly. With that said, the longer term trend here strongly suggests that on an inflation adjusted basis sales and EBITDA growth are significantly weaker than in the 2023-2024 period, the Golden Age of BDC lending. Since then, public BDC earnings and credit performance have weakened, at the same time as GCAI metrics have drastically softened. The most recent numbers are slightly better, but the (0.3%) drop in EBITDA in the IIQ 2026 is nothing to celebrate, especially compared to the 2.3% growth a year before and 7.5% two years ago.