Main Street Capital: IVQ 2025 Preliminary Results In Context

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NEWS

HOUSTON, Jan. 15, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Main Street Capital Corporation (NYSE: MAIN) (“Main Street” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce its preliminary operating results for the fourth quarter of 2025, the federal tax treatment of its dividends paid in 2025 and its fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings release and conference call schedule.

In commenting on the Company’s preliminary operating results for the fourth quarter of 2025, Dwayne L. Hyzak, Main Street’s Chief Executive Officer, stated, “We are extremely pleased with our continued strong performance in the fourth quarter, which closed another great year for Main Street across our key financial metrics, including several new quarterly and annual records. Our preliminary operating results highlight that our fourth quarter performance resulted in another quarter of strong operating results, including favorable distributable net investment income per share and a new record for net asset value per share for the fourteenth consecutive quarter, primarily driven by a significant net fair value increase and including the benefits of material net realized gains in both our lower middle market and private loan investment portfolios. We also produced extremely strong fourth quarter investment activity in our unique lower middle market investment strategy, resulting in an annual record for gross investments of approximately $700 million in 2025. Our fourth quarter results continued our positive performance over the last few years and resulted in an estimated return on equity of over 17% for the quarter and for the full year. We look forward to sharing the full details of our fourth quarter and full year 2025 results in late February.”

Preliminary Estimates of Fourth Quarter 2025 Results

Main Street’s preliminary estimate of fourth quarter 2025 net investment income (“NII”) is $1.01 to $1.05 per share, distributable net investment income (“DNII”)⁽¹⁾ is $1.07 to $1.11 per share and DNII before taxes⁽²⁾ is $1.09 to $1.13 per share.

Main Street’s preliminary estimate of net asset value (“NAV”) per share as of December 31, 2025 is $33.29 to $33.37, representing an increase of $0.51 to $0.59 per share, or 1.5% to 1.8%, from the NAV per share of $32.78 as of September 30, 2025, with this increase after the impact of the supplemental dividend paid in December 2025 of $0.30 per share. The estimated NAV per share increase is primarily due to the net fair value increase of the investment portfolio and the accretive impact of equity issuances, partially offset by the net tax provision for the quarter. The net fair value increase of the existing investment portfolio is primarily the result of net fair value increases of the existing lower middle market (“LMM”) and private loan investment portfolios, partially offset by net fair value decreases of the wholly-owned asset manager and the residual middle market investment portfolio.

As a result of Main Street’s preliminary estimates of NII, the net changes in the fair value of the investment portfolio and the net tax provision as noted above, Main Street estimates that it generated a return on equity of over 17% for both the fourth quarter on an annualized basis and for the full year of 2025.⁽³⁾

Main Street preliminarily estimates that investments on non-accrual status comprised 1.0% of the total investment portfolio at fair value and 3.3% at cost as of December 31, 2025.

Investment Portfolio Activity

The Company’s fourth quarter 2025 operating activities include the following investment activity in the LMM and private loan investment strategies:

• $300.0 million in total LMM portfolio investments, which, after aggregate repayments and return of invested equity capital, including a decrease in cost basis associated with the exits of several LMM portfolio investments, resulted in a net increase of $253.1 million in the total cost basis of the LMM investment portfolio; and
• $231.4 million in total private loan portfolio investments, which, after aggregate repayments, return of invested equity capital associated with the exit of two private loan portfolio investments, and a decrease in cost basis due to a realized loss on a private loan portfolio investment resulted in a net increase of $108.8 million in the total cost basis of the private loan investment portfolio.”

We thought it would be interesting to compare MAIN’s key preliminary results for the IVQ 2025 with its historic results – and any analyst expectations – to put the reported performance in context.analysis

Three To Choose From

MAIN reports earnings in 3 flavors – the GAAP-approved – Net Investment Income Per Share (NIIPS); the non-U.S. GAAP-approved Distributable Net Investment Income Per Share (DNIIPS), and the also not blessed by GAAP, Distributable Net Investment Income Per Share After Tax (DNIIPSAT).

In our own records – the BDC Reporter tracks all BDCs’ quarterly and annual earnings per share going back many years – we focus on NIIPS.

That’s because NIIPS is the “official”, GAAP-approved number; the most conservative, and what the analysts tend to use when making projections.

However, the other two metrics are valuable as well. MAIN is one of a handful of internally managed BDCs and, as a result, is paying $0.07 per share of share-based compensation to its personnel, as reflected in the DNII.

That’s $0.07 of non-cash expense available to be invested or distributed.

We also learn that there seems to be $0.02 of “related tax expenses” being added back in the DNIIPSAT. The tax is not a non-cash charge but relates to the BDC’s decision to incur excise taxes to manage the schedule of its earnings payout.

Three Months Back

Last quarter, MAIN’s NIIPS came to $0.97. This suggests that in the IVQ 2025 – using the mid-point of the estimate range – this metric will be $1.03 and will have increased 6.2%.

As to DNIIPS, in the IIIQ 2025, the number was $1.03 versus $1.09 estimated for the IVQ 2025, and DNIIPSAT was $1.07 versus $1.11 most recently.

Above

The analyst consensus for IVQ 2025 NIIPS was $0.99 – (4%) below the likely actual result.

To be fair, though, the earnings estimates – spread over 8 hard-working analysts – ranged from $0.95 to $1.03 per share.

So one or more analysts will be able to claim to have made the right call.

Further Back

As noted above, we track recurring earnings quarterly all the way back to the IIIQ 2022.

The highest NIIPS achieved in any quarter was – not surprisingly – during the height of the BDC sector’s Golden Years – in the IVQ 2023.

NIIPS reached an apex of $1.07 at a time when interest rates were much higher.

So Different

Many BDCs peaked earnings-wise in that quarter.

For example, Ares Capital (ARCC) reported recurring earnings per share of $0.62 in that period.

However, while MAIN’s NIIPS have since dropped, going by this estimate, by less than (4%), ARCC is estimated to be (21%) lower when IVQ 2025 results come out.

For many other BDCs, the drop from The Best Of Times till currently has been even more drastic. We’ve seen drops from the highest to the expected IVQ 2025 of up to (50%)!

For most BDCs, those days of wine and roses are long gone, but not for MAIN…

Book Value Too

The increase in NAVPS to $33.33, potentially in the IVQ 2025, is also remarkable.

MAIN’s NAVPS has increased 14 quarters in a row – a feat that no other BDC can even touch.

See for yourself by looking at the BDC NAV Change Table. The second-best BDC in terms of regularly increasing its NAVPS has managed a sequence of only 3.

Over the past 12 months, NAVPS is up 5.3%. Most spectacular of all by BDC standards, MAIN’s NAVPS has jumped by nearly 50% over the last 5 years.

Rule Of 3

Even credit metrics seem better this quarter than last. Non-accruals at cost as a percentage of the portfolio are at 3.0% this quarter, down from 3.6% in the IIIQ and 5.0% in the IIQ.

We say credit metrics “seem” better because those lower numbers could relate to realized losses being booked rather than true credit improvements.

However, given the higher risk nature of MAIN’s loan portfolio, the level of troubled assets seems very reasonable.

We’ll know more when the actual results come out.

Active

MAIN seems to have been very busy in the IVQ 2025 after a IIIQ, which saw the portfolio shrink a hair when valued at cost.

Some basic math seems to suggest the overall portfolio should show an increase of 8%. That’s a huge percentage in 3 months.

VIEWS

Need It Be Said?

These BDC earnings “previews” have to be taken with a grain of salt because there is so much not revealed.

Still, this press release does suggest that MAIN remains the GOAT in the public BDC arena by most metrics and is pulling ahead of the field.

Most likely, the BDC is continuing to sell new shares accretively, which boosts its NAVPS. Add to that all those new investments added in the IVQ 2025, and there’s a good chance MAIN may offer a repeat performance in the IQ 2026, even though the average SOFR rate will be lower.

The analysts – before this news – were projecting MAIN would book $3.93 per share of NIIPS in 2026, better than $3.92 in 2024 but still (5%) below the top year of 2023 at $4.14.

These results suggest the BDC might be able to get its NIIPS over $4 a share and even challenge, on one earnings metric or another, the 2023 peak.